Over the past few months, sugar has been on accelerating upward spiral, hitting a 28-year high at USD24 cents per pound. On September 1rd In analysis posted on this blog I stated that sugar prices exhibit a “bubble” characteristic. Fitting LPPL model I came to conclusion that bubble get into critical zone. The critical zone describes the maturation of a systemic instability forewarning of an inevitable crash. Since the beginning of September the sugar prices abandoned the „super-exponential” growth pattern and start to widely oscillate which goes along the prediction of the LPPL model
Here you can download a PowerPoint presentation. This presentation is aimed to show a more detailed analysis of the sugar#11 futures contract prediction and the methods used to make and test them. Specifically they are LPPL model, LPPL fitting procedure
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