Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Asset price misalignments and the role of money and credit

ECB just released working paper on the role of money and credit indicators for detecting asset prices misalignments. This is most likely the second ECB publication on early warning asset bubbles indicators this year. Conclusion are quite intuitive that monetary and credit developments may be very useful in predicting asset bubbles burst. I have no problem with that conclusion because positive feedback loop from credit to house prices and again to credit was behind surge of house prices (also in Eastern Europe). I think that that to reduce price to price feedback (to avoid superbubbles creation) central banks should be more focused on credit growth and also closely monitor interactions between collateral valuation (i.e. house prices) and banks willingness to lend.

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