This chart is from Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke column comparing today’s global crises to the Great Depression. Although the general conclusion of the comparison is rather grim (i.e. no signs of green shoots in hard data) but Poland in that comparison is doing relatively well. The fall in the industrial output is relatively soft. What is than the receipt for success? I think Poland is weathering the storm so well (in relative terms) because of several factors : 1) Underdeveloped banking system 2) less leverage 3) smaller gaps /macro imbalances 4) regulations/constrains for domestic households to borrow in foreign currencies. Only if Poland would use good times (2005-2007) to reform state budged then it could be a clear winner of the crises
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Poland then(30's) and now(00's)
This chart is from Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke column comparing today’s global crises to the Great Depression. Although the general conclusion of the comparison is rather grim (i.e. no signs of green shoots in hard data) but Poland in that comparison is doing relatively well. The fall in the industrial output is relatively soft. What is than the receipt for success? I think Poland is weathering the storm so well (in relative terms) because of several factors : 1) Underdeveloped banking system 2) less leverage 3) smaller gaps /macro imbalances 4) regulations/constrains for domestic households to borrow in foreign currencies. Only if Poland would use good times (2005-2007) to reform state budged then it could be a clear winner of the crises
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